Forecasting CPM Prices for Black Friday and Cyber Monday

As the Holidays are approaching, more and more advertisers are starting to advertise their products and services. As a result, the costs of showing ads are increasing. To spend your budget in the most optimal way, we will present to you a CPM forecast for the upcoming 14 days. Also, we published a real-time monitor for our CPM forecasts here. Other points that will be covered in this blog are;

• This Friday and Saturday the cost per mille (CPM) is expected to spike in both Europe and Northern America.
• Especially in the United States and the Netherlands, the costs will spike heavily this Friday and Saturday.
• In Spain and France prices are expected to increase the least this weekend.
• On Cyber Monday advertising costs will be more than 30% lower than on Black Friday in most countries.

This weeks CPM Forecast for the Netherlands

Today the average CPM will be around €2,64, but that will rapidly increase in the upcoming days. On Saturday, the day after Black Friday, we expect the costs to spike with an average CPM of €3,19. Then on Sunday, the costs will decrease to €2,32.

After the “Black Friday storm”, prices for next week are expected to be significantly lower. On Cyber Monday advertisers can buy impressions for only €1,85 CPM, which is 30% lower than on Saturday. Also on the following days impressions will be relatively cheap compared to this week. In the long term, we expect the prices to start increasing again around halfway through December.

This weeks CPM Forecast for the US, DE, UK, FR, ES & BE

Below we will walk you through the forecast for six other countries.

The United States

Just as in the Netherlands, we expect higher advertising prices for the United States this week. On Cyber Monday there is an opportunity for advertisers to sell their products or services in the US. Costs will then be more than 25% lower than this week.

Germany

Moving on, in Germany, we see a similar pattern as in the Netherlands and the United States. This week the advertising costs will rapidly increase by more than 30%. On Saturday the costs will spike with a CPM of €2,26. Next week, there is a big opportunity to buy inventory on Cyber Monday. On that day, costs will be €0,67 lower than on Saturday the 28th.

United Kingdom

This Saturday prices in the United Kingdom will spike with an average CPM of €2,18. On Cyber Monday, the advertising costs will be 30% lower.

France

In France there we expect a slight increase in costs of 25% this Friday. Next week, costs will move back to their average. Just as in the other markets there is a good buying opportunity on Cyber Monday. That day the average CPM is expected to be only €1,-.

Spain

We also looked into the price fluctuations in Spain. In Spain, the costs are expected to spike this Saturday, the day after Black Friday. Afterwards we expect the price to go back to €0,65 and even €0,56 on Cyber Monday.

Belgium

Last but not least we dived into the CPM forecast for Belgium. Just as in ES, UK, DE, and NL, the CPM prices will spike on Saturday this week (and not on Black Friday). On Monday you can buy ads for a CPM that is 25% lower than on Saturday.

In Conclusion

In this blog, we presented you with a data-driven forecast of the advertising costs for the upcoming weeks. Based on historical data in combination with buying activity from several advertising platforms we retrieved crucial data for making our CPM predictive model as accurate as possible.

In the upcoming months, we will post more often about the CPM forecasts. Also, we will published a live CPM forecast, in which you can track the forecasts yourself. There will be another post about that soon (follow us to get notified). Might you want to know more about the data behind our models, just send us a message and we will get in contact with you.

Have a great week!